Archaeological Prediction and Risk Management: Alternatives by Hans Kamermans, Martijn van Leusen, Philip Verhagen

By Hans Kamermans, Martijn van Leusen, Philip Verhagen

The Netherlands is likely one of the few international locations in Europe the place history specialists and land builders use predictive modeling to prevent destroying destiny archaelocial websites, even if many students examine the applying for this objective hugely arguable. The participants to Archaeological Prediction and threat Management supply an outline of a number of the equipment of predictive modeling and overview how the types are, or will be, utilized by stakeholders in cultural historical past administration within the Netherlands.

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2% (see chapter 8, 111). Obviously, this is only a first step towards a financial risk assessment that will be helpful to the developers and provide a necessary counterweight for the more subjective and emotional alternative. For that, we also need more information on the actual costs of dealing with different aspects of archaeology, and an assessment of the probability of particularly expensive types of research being necessary. This in turn implies that risk assessment studies must be carried out at a wider scale than the current development project, as we need to have comparative data.

The result of this will be that the archaeological market will shrink. 35 4 - The high price or the first prize for the archaeological predictive model Those who have the opportunity to make archaeological predictive models will therefore have a powerful and precious weapon in their hands. Knowledge of GIS and/or geo-statistics is actually not required for making such predictive models. At the moment anyone in the Netherlands is allowed to carry out an archaeological desktop study, so anyone is allowed to make an archaeological predictive model.

However it is not possible to set rules in advance for what will be seen as proportional or disproportional by all parties. Yet, apparently “we” always seem to work it out through negotiation and we may trust to find the middle ground by the effect of precedent. subsidiarity. The principle means that always the least severe (but effective) method should be chosen. An example: if a percentage of cover of 5% for trial trenches suffices, it cannot be defended to opt for a percentage of 10%. In daily practice the above notions are used as balancing framework for the beginning of the research and during decision moments between the exploratory and mapping phases, and between the mapping and evaluation phases.

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